Research

Is the BIS sounding the alarm on financial stability?

The 2025 report by the Bank for International Settlements has struck a bearish note. We put it into perspective and introduce a novel sentiment indicator.

Fabian Scheler

December 12, 2025

Is the widespread political decay a danger for the stock market

Undoubtedly, the state of democracy and the rule of law in vast parts of the world is concerning. The implications for equity investors, though, are far from clear, as our analysis shows.

Fabian Scheler

September 21, 2025

Can Germany regain its mojo?

Chinese electric cars and Trump's tariffs are a double whammy for a once-admired economy. Nevertheless, the DAX index has rallied this year. We take a closer look at the maladies plaguing Europe's largest country and express a cautiously optimistic view.

Fabian Scheler

August 17, 2025

Have equity markets become more accident-prone?

Have technological developments, financial innovation, and globalization made the stock market faster and more violent? We examine whether recent sharp price fluctuations reflect a paradigm shift in market behaviour.

Fabian Scheler

May 5, 2025

What Yale's stock market confidence indices tell us about investors' psyche

How do institutional and individual investors' view of contemporary and expected market conditions react to macroeconomic and fundamental developments? Our article takes a look behind the scenes.

Fabian Scheler

January 31, 2025

Challenges and solutions in quantifying risks in private markets

The risk of equities and bonds is made obvious by historical time series, but what about private equity, private debt or venture capital?

Fabian Scheler

December 11, 2024

Value, Growth and Interest Rates - a complicated relationship

Is Value vs Growth just a play on rates? Decomposing the drivers of relative performance into Dividends, EPS Growth and P/E Expansion yields mixed evidence.

Fabian Scheler

October 24, 2022

Will TIPS shield you from the inflation surge?

Inflation has become a key concern for investors worldwide. In our article, we elaborate on inflation-linked bonds and show why these instruments are not as straightforward a choice as the name suggests.

Fabian Scheler

June 23, 2022

Who is afraid of the continuation fund?

So-called continuation funds have been booming, especially since M&A and IPO activity took a hit in 2022 and 2023 in the wake of choppy markets and rising interest rates. A warning signal or an opportunity?

Fabian Scheler

June 5, 2023

What's up with the Great Resignation?

The labour force participation rate has recovered slower than expected post-Covid, causing shortages and soaring wages. We analyze the demographic drivers of the phenomenon in five charts.

Fabian Scheler

August 15, 2022

Why higher rates won't spark a return of stock picking

Over the past decade, poor performance has frequently been attributed to markets "being driven by cheap money instead of fundamentals". Does this argument hold?

Fabian Scheler

November 27, 2023

Why gold is shining again

The world's oldest store of wealth has regained its sparkle over the past years in an environment characterized by high inflation and geopolitical polarization. Our article explores long-term cross-correlations and new demand drivers.

Ygal Sebban

October 25, 2023

The Shiller P/E at 40x; a look in the rear mirror

For the first time since the burst of the Dotcom bubble, the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 Index has surpassed 40x.

Fabian Scheler

January 1, 2022

The year ahead - a brief recap of consensus expectations

December and January are the months of investment outlooks. So we skimmed read quite a few 'year ahead' publications, summarised them and are now looking forward to reviewing this article again in 11 months.

Fabian Scheler

January 28, 2022

Spoiled for choice - how to configure a short-put strategy?

Selling put options is a popular strategy that promises compelling returns if executed correctly. However, the right design and execution are essential.

Fabian Scheler

August 10, 2022

Should I invest all at once or spread it out?

Many investors are uncomfortable with significant lump-sum investments in risky assets. It is therefore often recommended to stagger the market entry. But does this strategy indeed reduce risk?

Fabian Scheler

May 11, 2022

The Fixed Income Conundrum of Asset Allocators

Asset allocators who have not given up on generating returns exceeding fees and inflation face tough choices. Those who do not want to bet the bank on equities should better look for alternatives.