The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Annual Economic Report probably counts among the most widely read publications on the state of the global economy and the financial stability risks it is facing. Published in June, the institution's flagship publication undertakes a 360-degree assessment of the global economic outlook, financial stability, and monetary policy. This year, market observers have been alarmed by the reports' stark warning of trade fragmentation, inflation pressure, high public debt paired with geopolitical conflicts and the rise in non-bank financial intermediaries. But how does this sobering assessment compare to past readings of the state of the economy?

• The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is one of the oldest institutions promoting international monetary cooperation.
• Its Annual Economic Report is a highly regarded research publication that is closely scrutinised by many market observers.
• The 2025 publication was overshadowed by the tariff shock and contained a rather gloomy outlook for the global economy. We therefore asked ourselves to what extent investors should be concerned about the risks highlighted by the BIS.
• Employing artificial intelligence, we analysed all reports published since 1997 and developed two quantitative sentiment indices, whose performance we compared with the leading and lagging performance of the stock market.