Markets

What the US stock market is telling us about the AI-boom

Has AI created a stock market bubble? Our article analyses earnings and valuation multiples across the US stock market and expresses a more nuanced view.

Fabian Scheler

January 26, 2026

Can Germany regain its mojo?

Chinese electric cars and Trump's tariffs are a double whammy for a once-admired economy. Nevertheless, the DAX index has rallied this year. We take a closer look at the maladies plaguing Europe's largest country and express a cautiously optimistic view.

Fabian Scheler

August 17, 2025

Have equity markets become more accident-prone?

Have technological developments, financial innovation, and globalization made the stock market faster and more violent? We examine whether recent sharp price fluctuations reflect a paradigm shift in market behaviour.

Fabian Scheler

May 5, 2025

Valuation doesn't matter... until it does

For more than a decade, expensive stocks kept getting more expensive while value investing looked like a fool's game. Now, many active strategies have shredded years of outperformance within weeks.

Fabian Scheler

May 16, 2022

The Put/Call Ratio as a contrarian market timing indicator

Do elevated levels in the Put/Call ratio precede higher equity market returns? We have tested the merits of option volumes for the timing of bottom-fishing.

Fabian Scheler

October 3, 2022

The considerable effects of long-term inflation differentials

For many years, the strong CHF has taken a bite out of the performance of Swiss investors' global portfolios. However, in real terms, they have not been worse off than their envied American peers.

Fabian Scheler

January 31, 2022

The 2024 recap of consensus expectations

What's in stock for 2024? Following a tradition we started in 2022, we have again reviewed and summarized the market outlooks published by leading banks and asset managers.

Fabian Scheler

January 5, 2024

Don't stockpile on crude

Every crash, however painful, can be seen as an opportunity. We are therefore putting a lot of effort in evaluating possibilities to capitalize on current price dislocations.

Fabian Scheler

January 4, 2020

Are we heading into an earnings recession?

The rare divergence between equity market performance and earnings estimates in 2022 draws attention to the complicated relationship between corporate profits and share prices. We have seen this before - in the 70s.

Fabian Scheler

July 13, 2022