• Are stock markets moving faster and more violently? We examine whether recent sharp price moves (Covid-19 and April 2025) reflect a structural shift or are in line with the distribution of returns observed historically.
• Using statistical tools like extreme value theory, and regression analysis, we assess trends in daily and intraday fluctuations across major indices.
• While the US has shown signs of more frequent extreme fluctuations since the 1980s, many markets – particularly in Asia – appear to have become more stable, opening up greater opportunities for international diversification.
• Rapid price declines are challenging traditional risk management and tactical asset allocation strategies. We are skeptical of procyclical market timing approaches and instead recommend investing proactively in severe dislocations as they occur.

In recent years, investors have been rattled by aseries of rapid, large-scale market corrections —from the COVID-19 crash to the sudden policyshock in April this year. Is such extreme marketbehavior actually becoming more common, or isthis impression the result of cognitive overreactiondue to recency bias? Building on our earlier workon mean-reversion and contrarian tactical asset allocation, we now turn to statistical evidence acrossglobal markets to explore trends in the frequency,magnitude, and speed of stock market drawdowns.The analysis yields some interesting insights on thelonger term evolvement of tail risks in both developed and emerging economies.